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Newsletter: January 2006
Performance Beyond MFA Regime
US clothing demand grew vigorously in early
2005, helping to boost sales by major retailers such as Target and Wal-Mart.
But the gains have gone mainly to foreign suppliers in Bangladesh, India and
especially China.
In Latin America, Brazil exporters
enjoyed growing demand in Argentina, China, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay and
the Andean region. In Colombia clothing exports reached a record high while
textile shipments soared. But Mexico faces tough competition in the US
market from India, Bangladesh and other Asian suppliers.
EU15 output and orders fell in early 2005
as the stronger euro and quota elimination took their toll. The deficit rose
for a fourth year as higher imports from Bangladesh, China and Pakistan
offset modest export growth. But a new trade deal should stem the import
surge from China. Meanwhile, firms are investing in China, India, Eastern
Europe and North Africa. New EU states are investing in technical textiles.
In Japan, output continues to spiral
downwards as foreign competition intensifies and firms invest in low cost
facilities overseas. Exports from China, which supplies 80% of
Japan’s clothing imports, soared by 21.1% in the first eight months of 2005.
Yarn output rose by 23.8%, fabric by 16.7% and clothing by 19.4%. But
success has led others to impose quotas on its exports.
Quotas have benefited Hong Kong as some
operations have been moved back from China. But Hong Kong firms are
investing in Cambodia, India, Indonesia and Jordan rather than China to
avoid quotas.
In South Korea higher sales to China have
only partly offset falling sales in the USA and many firms are turning to
high-tech products. Firms in Taiwan have also suffered although some
fibre makers are still investing. Indonesia has gained from quota
elimination with exports up 32% in the first five months of 2005. But
foreign direct investment has fallen.
Thailand and Malaysia have done better
than expected with higher exports and output, despite relocation by
some firms to Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Bangladesh. In Vietnam
growth has been slowed by quotas on exports to the USA. Clothing exports
from Bangladesh, helped by brisk sales in the USA, have done
surprisingly well. But textile exports from India were sluggish, and
much of the technology remains obsolete. Pakistan and Sri Lanka, by
contrast, are enjoying brisk growth, despite Chinese competition. |