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Newsletter: December 2001
While US shoppers are counting every penny
in the run-up to Christmas, for the European consumer it's almost as if
September 11 never happened. While US retail indicators such as the Redbook retail
sales
average
show lower readings than last year, European trading statements and official
figures point to a bubbly retail economy. Not all European retailers are riding high, of
course, and not all US stores are in the doldrums. But experts say Europeans
are generally feeling confident about their own financial situation, despite
the continuing US recession. Europe's Shoppers Spend Their Way Out Of Attack Blues At Hennes & Mauritz, the world's biggest fashion retailer, posted a 20 % year-on-year sales increase - despite lower turnover at its US outlets. To underline the schism in retail activity on
either side of the Atlantic, H&M's arch-rival Gap Inc chalked up a
thumping 25 %
fall in November sales,
rounding the bad news off with a profit warning. But H&M is just one example of the tidings
of joy borne by retail chains across Europe. In Britain, recent retail
reporters such as Great Universal Stores, Allders and Sainsbury's all
chorused the good news. Britain's Office for National statistics said UK
retail sales had increased 1.3% in November, the largest month-on-month percentage increment in almost
a year. It's not just Britain. French shoppers pushed
spending to exceptional levels at two of Paris' flagship department stores
in the first Sunday shopping day in the run-up to Christmas. On that day
alone, Parisian shoppers spent 33.9 million francs ($4.6m) at Le Printemps
department store on the Boulevard Haussman, and 26 million francs ($3.5m)
next door at Galeries Lafayette. In Netherlands, economist commented on the prevailing mood in the country "What consumers think about the economy is mostly determined by
what they read in the newspapers - companies going bankrupt, a slowdown in
economic growth. But
unemployment in the Netherlands is not increasing sharply and the value of
houses isn't falling. Share markets are performing weakly, but there are
more Dutch owning their own houses than owning shares." This doesn't explain everything, of course. One
of the main factors behind perky consumer activity in Europe is the suite of
interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (four cuts this year
totaling 150 basis points). But the US Federal Reserve has cut rates, too,
slashing its headline rate to 1.75% from 6.50% in January in a bid to counter a sagging economy
and the psychological blow of the September 11 attacks on New York and
Washington. Jerome Bedier, president of France's traders and
retailers federation, had a further explanation. He believed December 2001
could be marked what he called "overconsumption" due to
"precautionary buying" ahead of the adoption of euro notes and
coins on January 1. Back in Stockholm, there is a pragmatic explanation for a boom in Christmas
present buying because many people have cancelled their
Christmas vacation trips abroad, and so they have more to spend on presents. USA:
Apparel Retailers Hit Hard By Shopping Slump US shoppers proved picky in their spending over Christmas ignoring many last-minute pre-Christmas specials
on apparel and luxury items, as economic worries continued to depress
consumer sentiment. Apparel retailers like Federated Department
Stores Inc are among the companies hardest-hit by shoppers' new-found
frugality. Shoppers are reluctant to
commit themselves to spending on items they deem non-essential in light of the continuing fallout in
unemployment The overall US same-store sales in the first 24 days
of the holiday shopping season rose 1.8 per cent year-on-year, down from
growth of 2.4 per cent a year earlier. Wal-Mart Stores Inc, whose business has received
a boost from consumers' search for value, also said business at its discount
stores was also a bit disappointing in the December 8-14 week. Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart said while
goods such as Christmas trees and lights sold well in that week, sales at
its discount stores trended "slightly below plan." Kmart, which has been losing ground to its
larger rival Wal-Mart, said on Monday in its weekly sales update same-store
sales for the week ended December 12 were slightly below plan for the month,
which pegged an increase of nil to 2%. To make things worse, apparel retailers such as
the Gap Inc - the largest US clothing chain - have continued to slash prices
to try to lure shoppers, a step which hurts profitability. Gap had 543 markdown items in the week versus
189 last year. Most retailers, particularly those in apparel,
were headed for the worst Christmas in a decade. There is a confluence
of risk factors that have been building up for a decade at the retail bubble. Analyst expected the outcome of this holiday shopping season to lead to some consolidation in the retail sector, which has been plagued by sluggish sales and weak profits since late last year. |